My Trade Plan Details:

• FDX Nov 17, 2023 $245 puts near $3.00
• Stop: Close above $251
• Target 1: $242
• Target 2: $235

My Reasoning:

This week is going to be a tough one to navigate. The Market is going to digest the gains from last week, and it will be tough to make a move much higher from here.

At the same time, I don’t think we will see a big dip either. My most likely scenario is that the market drifts slightly higher, and we see a choppy week.

That is a very tough time to buy options, because I am not expecting much of a move higher (or lower) for most stocks, and time decay kills options if they are not moving in your favor.

There are some very weak stocks that got saved last week by the rally. I don’t think anything has fundamentally changed for them, and it is probably good to keep betting they will go lower.

There are several stocks that fit that criteria for me, but there is one that stands out that I am looking to bet against right now.

My Bullseye pick this week is FedEx (FDX) puts.

As I said, I don’t expect an easy drop for stocks this week, but I do think that weak stocks like FDX will see selling pressure on any rallies.  

If I am wrong about this trade and it continues higher, then I will use a break above $251, which would be above the peak we saw on last week’s rally, as my stopping point.  

Remember, I always want to see closing prices, not intraday prices, for my stop losses.

If I am right, we will see sellers take advantage of last week’s rally, and I will lock in a profit in the low $240’s as target #1 and around $235 as target #2.