In fact, this trade had closer to 200% potential, if I followed my own plan and added when I was supposed to.  I got busy with an upcoming trip, and I missed my additional entry, but I can’t complain too much about hitting a monster trade like this over the week and not babysitting it.

My Trade Details:

• RIOT Apr 28 2023 $13 put near $1.30
• Stop: Close above $14
• Target 1: $11
• Target 2: $10

My Reasoning:

Now for this week, I am going after another stock to the short side.  While I still think the whole market is due for a pullback, I find the timing impossible to figure out.  

When it comes to crypto right now, I am seeing all the signals of a short-term top. I would be shocked to see higher prices than we saw last week anytime soon, before we have a meaningful dip.

There are a lot of ways to bet against crypto right now, but my top idea this week is to buy puts on RIOT.

My Trade Details:

• AMGN Apr 21 2023 $245 Call near $2.70
• below $234
• Target 1: $248
• Target 2: $255

My Reasoning:

The Biotech sector has been finding some life again after a dismal few months to start the year. I really like the support building up for that entire sector, and I think we will see it play “catch up” with the rest of the market soon (IBB is down 2% while the QQQ is up 20% YTD so far).

The top dog in that ETF is one of my favorite Biotech stocks, and that is what I am focusing on this week.

The company is Amgen (AMGN).

There is a lot to like about the chart setup right now.  When a major stock like this drops from $280’s to $220’s in a few months’ time, you better pay attention.

I think we have seen the lows for AMGN for quite a while, and the bulls will take charge again.

My Trade Details:

• SMH Apr 6 2023 $260 Call near $4
• Stop: Close below $235
• Target 1: $255
• Target 2: $265

Here was my reasoning:

The single strongest sector I see right now is semiconductors.  My favorite would be NVDA, but that has already made a big move. This week, I am going to bet that the whole semiconductor industry stays strong, and I am looking to buy calls on the ETF for that sector – SMH.

On SMH, I plan to look to enter the trade today on a dip if we get it. I am not in a hurry to chase any stocks in this market. I am confident that waiting on the price I want will be better than chasing something to buy at a level I am not comfortable with.

I also plan to add to this position on a dip following the Fed announcement on Wednesday this week (it is @ 1pm EST, so make a note).

Keep a close eye on VIX and also TLT as they will likely be signals of where the market is headed.  I’ll break that down in more detail later today.

My Trade Details:

• NUGT Mar 31 2023 $35 Call near $.80

• Stop: Close below $30

• Target 1: $34
• Target 2: $37

Here was my reasoning:

A trade I see that is setting up nicely right now are gold stocks.  So this week, I am looking to bet my money on – NUGT.

A big monkey wrench could be the fact that the Fed might signal they are going to pause interest rate hikes.  That could cause the market to briefly pop, and pressure gold, but I think we are going to see a strong bid for any dips in gold stocks, so I want to be there when it happens.

My Trade Details:

• V Mar 10 2023 220 Put near $3
• Stop: Close above $228
• Target 1: $216
• Target 2: $212

Here was my reasoning:

V had a modest reaction to earnings a few weeks ago, but nothing that was too convincing.  The stock has drifted lower in the last few sessions, and it has given up all of the move higher that it made following the earnings report.

With the low expected implied volatility for V, this makes an idea candidate for a big win even with a small move in the stock.

My plan is to wait for a little opening “pop” from the lows, maybe to the $223 area, and start to build a short position there with puts.

I will only start with a half-sized position and leave room to buy more in the next day or so.

If I am wrong, I will use a close above the $228 level as my stop on the trade.

If things go my way, I will look to take profits near the $216 level and possibly even $212 if it gets there.

Get ready for an exciting week ahead!

I am nimble and ready to get into trades really quickly right now.  I have a huge list of upcoming trades I want to make with my “Unlimited” members, so get ready for that if you are a member (if you aren’t – you should join now!).

From my experience this is how big bullish market moves usually end in the short term, when junk begins to fly! Here’s what happened to the options I sent out on Monday:

And here’s how I traded it:

I took ½ of my position off after a 50% move so I am still in this trade! I wanted to let the rest ride because I know how crazy these meme names can get but unfortunately CVNA has started to come back down. Either way I traded my plan and made sure to lock on some gains on a great idea.

My Trade Details:

• CVNA Feb 24 2023 $15 Call near $3
• Stop: Close below $11.80
• Target 1: $16.50
• Target 2: $21.50

Here was my reasoning:

You must be asking yourself, “If it is such a trash company, why buy CVNA?”

My answer is that in the short-term, it just doesn’t matter how terrible the stock is.  If you zoom out and just look at this idea from a technical perspective (that is, just looking at the stock chart), it is a pretty amazing setup.

If you are a member of my “Bullseye Unlimited” program (and you better be!) you will remember that I picked this last week, when the stock was around $10.  Then it shot up to nearly $20 the very next day, and the options moved well over 400% following my alert.

Not to say that will happen again, but it proves that this is a powder-keg opportunity right now.

The short interest in this stock is off the charts.  I am sure the move last week both trapped a lot of recent shorts and had a lot of new ones added.

But here is the thing… even though CVNA pulled back to $14’s after touching $20, it hasn’t budged since.  I think shorts are in a big mess right now and if the “Apes” get their way, they will push this stock right back up soon.

The options were up over 170%

Here was my reasoning:

There is one stock that has been very strong, but it too has been “running out of gas” lately.  There was also a viral video this weekend that made their main competitor (PFE) look very bad.  I think that’s going to spill over to the sector, and it’s very hard to imagine that we see a continued rally anytime soon.

The stock I am looking to bet against this week is Moderna (MRNA).

MRNA has already slashed its outlook for 2023 sales (when is the last time you heard about anyone getting a Covid shot?).

The Company is really dependent on future vaccines, and importantly the trust of the public.  I think the Pfizer video this weekend is going to further shake the confidence of people everywhere, and probably put a lid on the price of the stock for a while.

I am looking to bet against MRNA this week by buying puts on it (this is a bet the stock will go lower if you are new to trading options).

I’m going to use a stop loss of $197 if MRNA closes above that level.

My targets to the downside (in which case the puts would make money) will be near the recent support level of $177, and then $165 as target #2 if things really start to break down.

This is going to be an exciting week ahead of us with the release of the Fed rate decision and lots of earnings reports from big tech names.  Buckle up and let’s get on the right side of the trade!

The options were up over 300%

Here was my reasoning:

The best-looking tech stock I see right now from a risk/reward perspective is a software company that I haven’t traded in a long time – Splunk (SPLK).

After a rocky 2022, SPLK has been on the rebound after a strong earnings report in late November.

In this chart from Zack’s research, you will see that earnings are expected to rebound sharply this year and continue into 2024.

The market has been bidding up this stock on every dip since earnings, and I think it will continue.

SPLK is now within striking distance of the 200-day moving average, which is where I will put my first target near $95 if it gets there, then $100 above that for the 2nd goal.

If I am wrong, then I want to use a relatively tight stop of $85 on the stock.

You will also notice that I am aiming for options that have longer expiration than usual, and I am looking to go out of the money on this trade.  That is because I might need to hold this trade longer than just a week, and I want to give myself more room.

The options were up over 90%

Here was my reasoning:

ENPH might be a tricky one this week as I am betting on a reversal soon.  Reversals are very hard to spot exactly when they will happen. My plan is to get started with a half-sized position and then add to it (either higher or lower) as long as the chart stays in range.

The solar sector has been very hot lately and ENPH is one of the hedge fund darlings of the industry. As I have been predicting for a while now, ENPH did have a serious pullback, but I think this is over and funds will return to buying it again at these discounted levels. I am already seeing a small reversal happening the last few days, which is encouraging.

If I am wrong on this, then I will stop out for a loss if ENPH closes under $230 which is near the recent low. 

If I am right, I think the stock could hit $260 as my first target, and $280 as the next level.

I am not in a hurry to buy this first thing when the market opens today. I want to be patient and wait for prices to come in just a little bit first. I think I will get an entry near the $240 level, which would put the option price near $6.

The options were up over 200%

Here was my reasoning:

This week, I continue to remain bullish on the markets overall.  I don’t really see a lot out there that should derail a “mini-rally” for the markets.

When I look at the most bullish stocks out there right now, they aren’t my beloved tech stocks – they are “boring” stocks like industrials, commodities, and would you believe it… even homebuilders!

So that is where I am headed this week, back to a leader in the industrials, and a stock I have had a lot of success with, in the past – CAT  

There is a lot to like on the price chart for CAT right now.  It is a strong earnings winner, and it continues to grind higher after a one-month+ consolidation.

If I am wrong on this trade, I want to set a stop if CAT closes under $237, which is near the recent support level and 13-day moving average.

If I am right, then I think we will see a continued run higher over the next couple of weeks.  I think we could see prices near $260 and then $270 in an optimistic scenario.

That’s what the stock did: