My Trade Plan Details:

• ARM Oct 20, 2023 $55 calls near $1.60
• Stop: Close under $51
• Target 1: $57
• Target 2: $60

My Reasoning:

You probably remember ARM as the biggest IPO of the year (actually, one of the only IPOs of the year) from about a month ago.

The stock was very well received, and I thought that was a great sign for the market.

ARM has a huge line of products and revenue streams.  It is an excellent way to ride the growth in semiconductors.

After hitting a peak of $70 (briefly) the stock retreated to just above $50.  Over the last week or so, it has been quietly moving higher and is now sitting around $53.

I think this is a perfect opportunity to see a “short squeeze” soon.  I am sure a lot of traders have been betting against a further decline, but it hasn’t happened.  This gradual move higher can easily spark a quick move higher, even if the market overall is sloppy.

My plan this week is to buy call options somewhere near my target price today, possibly adding more in the coming days as long as the stock stays above my $51 stop limit (closing price).

If I am correct, I think ARM can make a move above the high we saw on Friday last week, around $57 as target #1, and then if I am lucky we’ll see a breakout to $60 (or more) as target #2. 

I will cover everything I see in the 11am LIVE SESSION so make sure you attend today.

My Trade Plan Details:

• QQQ Oct 6, 2023 $355 puts near $3.60
• Stop: Close over $365
• Target 1: $352
• Target 2: $348

My Reasoning:

You can easily make an argument that QQQ is “oversold” right now.  It certainly might be, but I have learned that oversold stocks can still get a lot more oversold before they rally.

My AI indicators are not close to showing a recovery yet, so I am going to stay on the bearish side of this trade.

This is not going to be an easy week for trading.  The market is very volatile right now and you should expect some very large swings back and forth.  If this is not your type of trading environment, I don’t think there is any shame in sitting on the sidelines and waiting for a better entry point.  

I would not call this an ideal time to trade at all.  That being said, I plan to attack QQQ this week in several smaller trades.  I want to get started with buying puts on it this morning, and then wait for more entries.

We will see either of two scenarios: 1) QQQ will drop significantly under $355, which will be a good spot for me to take profits.  2) QQQ will dip at the open, but then rally, probably somewhere near the $362 level.  That is where I plan to add to my puts.

Since I expect such a wide range of prices, I am going to keep the size small on the trade and look for a quick exit if I am right, and also let myself take advantage of any “fake rallies” that may occur.

If I am totally wrong on this trade, I think QQQ will close over $365.  That will be where I stop out of this trade.

If I am right, QQQ will break under $355, and I hope to sell somewhere above $350 for a quick score.

Get ready for a fast-moving week of trading. There will be a lot of opportunities on both the long and short side of things!

I will cover everything I see in the 11am LIVE SESSION so make sure you attend today.

My Trade Plan Details:

• AVAV Oct 20, 2023 $115 calls near $1.80
• Stop: Close under $108
• Target 1: $118
• Target 2: $124

My Reasoning:

AVAV is my favorite aerospace/defense stock. I love the future potential for drones in many capacities, and this stock is the true leader.  Besides being a “best in class” stock, it is so unique that I feel it would be an excellent take over target at some point. There are many bigger competitors who would love to buy future growth like we have with AVAV.

I am still very nervous about the markets here, so “hiding” in strong stocks like  AVAV makes sense to me.  They can outperform when markets go up, and they will (hopefully) hold their ground better that others when things go downhill.

My plan for AVAV is to grab a position sometime today, hopefully around my target entry price, though you never know exactly what the market will give you.

I am going to keep a pretty tight stop on this trade with a closing price under $108.

If things go my way, I will be looking for an exit around $118, which is just under the recent high following their earnings report.  After that, I think we could see this hit $124 or more.

It is going to be a fun week of trading…I hope you are ready for it!

My Trade Plan Details:

• GDX Sept 15, 2023 $29 PUTS near $.45
• Stop: Close above $30
• Target 1: $28
• Target 2: $27

BONUS Put Spread Idea:

GDX Sept 22 BUY $30 put & SELL $28 put for $.90 net debit.

My Reasoning:

This week, I am on the fence about market direction.  With $VIX trading so low, bonds not holding their recent bounce and the QQQ’s having trouble with new highs, my gut says we are headed lower this week.

That said, I think interest rate-sensitive stocks like tech, homebuilders, and miners are the most likely to fall. I find it hard to believe those will rally, unless bonds suddenly recover.

Of those sectors, I think gold stocks are showing the most weakness already and that is what I am looking to bet against this week.

My plan for GDX this week is to get started on a partial position sometime today, hopefully on a slight bounce higher (this would make the puts go lower.)

Then I’d like to add to the trade 1-2 days later, assuming GDX is still under my stop price of $30.  

If things go my way, I think we will see GDX fall to under $28, which is my first target, and then we could see $27 or lower after that.

I am only looking for a small move lower on GDX, so I am going with options that expire in less than 2 weeks in order to capitalize on that.  This creates more risk for the trade, but it also could have more upside for me if it works out. 

It is going to be a fun week of trading…I hope you are ready for it!

My Trade Plan Details:

• LLY Sept 15, 2023 $565 call near $5.50
• Stop: Close under $545
• Target 1: $575
• Target 2: $590

BONUS Call Spread Idea:

LLY Sept 15 BUY $555 call & SELL $575 call for $7.00 net debit.

My Reasoning:

While I do think the tech sector is going to stage a strong recovery, at least for a few days, I am going with one of the strongest stocks in the entire market right now.  

If you haven’t been following this story, you might think it is some “AI-powered tech stock” if you simply looked at the chart.  But no, it is a “boring” old pharma stock that just happens to be one of the few companies managing fantastic growth in that sector right now.

My Bullseye pick this week is Eli Lilly (LLY).

LLY is a very extended stock, but it hasn’t shown any signs of letting up yet.  I think it might just keep powering higher from here if the markets hold up.

My plan is to start a position today, hopefully on a slight pullback for the stock, with a half-sized position. I want to leave room for an addition if the stock has a slight pullback this week, but stays above my stop-loss price.

If things don’t go my way, I plan to stop out of this trade if LLY closes under $545, which is the recent support level from the last week or so.

If it breaks out higher, I think we could see a meaningful move up to around $575 as my first target and even $590 after that.

It is going to be a fun week of trading…I hope you are ready for it!

My Trade Plan Details:

• QQQ Sept 1, 2023 $365 call near $3.80
• Stop: Close under $356
• Target 1: $365
• Target 2: $370

BONUS Call Spread Idea:

QQQ Sept 8 sell $360 call & buy $370 call for $4.50 net debit.

My Reasoning:

Instead of going after any individual stock, I am going to go after the tech index, and buy QQQ calls as my Bullseye pick this week.

My plan for QQQ this week is to start with a half-sized position near the market open.  I would then like to add to this if QQQ gets back to $358 level.

Remember, we have a couple of significant events this week.  The first is NVDA earnings on Wednesday evening.  I really want to be out of at least half of my trade prior to that earnings announcement.

The other is Powell talking in Jackson Hole on Friday this week.  I expect him to try and calm the bond markets, which should also benefit the stock market.

I really think we have a great 3-day window on QQQ before NVDA on Wednesday this week, so I want to make the most of it.

If I am wrong on this trade, I will stop out if QQQ looks to close under $356 level.  That is a very tight stop, but I do not want to see the lows from last week get taken out.  If that happens, I will walk away with a small loss.

On the upside, I think we could see $365 in short order followed by $370, which is the upper end of the Keltner channel on an hourly basis.

It is going to be a fun week of trading…I hope you are ready for it!

My Trade Plan Details:

• ERX Aug 11 2023 $60 call near $1.80
• Stop: Close under $54
• Target 1: $64
• Target 2: $68

My Reasoning:

For this week, I am very hesitant to want to buy tech stocks into earnings.  We just saw NFLX and TSLA get clobbered for not hitting expectations, and this week we are going to see GOOGL, MSFT, META and so many others report.

As I have been saying in my live sessions over the last week, the market is priced for perfection right now.  Missing the mark on earnings, even a little, is going to cause stocks to get smacked.

So, I still think tech stocks are going to march higher. It sounds like a good idea for me to sit on the sidelines there right now and wait to see how the earnings reports are digested.

What I am noticing is that we are starting to see more “sector rotation” happening (I’ll talk in more detail about this during the live session today) into sectors like utilities, energy, transportation – you name it.

Biotechs are still a laggard, and I don’t know why exactly, but that sector can’t seem to sustain a rally.

All that said, I am looking to get into energy stocks this week.  There are several earnings reports coming soon in that sector as well, so I am going to play the ETF, which is a single stock that owns all of the big energy firms.

This week’s Bullseye idea is to buy calls on ERX.  

My Trade Plan Details:

• COIN July 28 2023 $100 put near $5
• Stop: Close above $112
• Target 1: $92
• Target 2: $85

My Reasoning:

I also don’t see a lot of great short set ups right now, in general.

There is one sector that really has my attention at the moment, though, and that is crypto.

Many of the big crypto stocks have made a 100% move in the last few weeks, even though the gains for crypto itself have been much lower.

I do not think this “pop” is going to last, and we are going to see a lot of declines soon.

My top target to bet against this week is Coinbase (COIN), and I am looking to buy puts on it this week in hopes to profit from a decline.

My plan for COIN is to wait and look for a little rally today, after what looks like opening weakness, and get started on the put option contracts. 

If I am wrong, I think we will see COIN close above $112, which was near the recent top.  That could lead to a further short-squeeze, so I would exit my trade there for a loss.

If I am right, I think we will quickly see $100 taken out and then a drop to the low $90 range, which is where I would like to lock in profit target #1.  

After that, I think we could see COIN trade all the way to $85, for target #2.

Stock up 5%

My Trade Plan Details:

• BA July 28 2023 $220 call near $3
• Stop: Close below $202
• Target 1: $219
• Target 2: $224

My Reasoning:

My plan for BA is to look for a little dip today and get started on the option contracts, but only for a half-sized position.

I want to save some room to add more to this if the stock dips, and then recovers later in the week.  A recovery will be when it begins to trade back above the mid-point of the Keltner channel.  

I talk about this every week, so if this is unfamiliar to you, please make sure you attend the live session today.

If I am wrong, I will stop out of this trade if BA closes under $202, which would be below the recent support level.

If it goes my way, I am looking to sell just under $220 for a profit, and possibly even $224 for my upside target.

Stock up 14%

My Trade Plan Details:

• DASH July 21 2023 $78 call near $1.80
• Stop: Close below $70
• Target 1: $80
• Target 2: $84

My Reasoning:

This week, I am targeting a stock that is not on the radar of a lot of traders right now, but it is consistently making new 52-week highs as well.

It isn’t an “AI stock,” so you aren’t hearing a lot about them in the news, but they are executing very well on its business model, and funds are slowly accumulating shares on every dip.

The chart pattern looks almost like what we are seeing for SPOT – non-stop bullish accumulation nearly all year long.

This week’s top idea is – DoorDash (DASH)

My plan for DASH this week is to make an initial purchase on a half-sized position today, if I can get an entry near my desired level.

I then want to save room to add to this at a key support level near $73, if it happens to dip in the next few days.

If it continues to fall from there, and the stock closes under $70, then I will stop out for a loss.

My goals on the upside will be $80 and then $84, if this trade works out in my favor.